Today many rumors have popped up in Moscow: where is Vladimir Putin, why hasn’t he appeared in public in many days, is he too ill to go to Astana? Will Igor Sechin – the world’s ugliest man in international business AND politics – be fired as CEO of Rosneft tomorrow (March 12)?

Even if Putin gets a “heart attack” or any similar FSB-style illness, the regime will stay the same. There might be a possibility, though, that the new leaders – in a situation where the old leader is out of the picture – will change the course of the recent political direction:

  • Many generals must by now acknowledge the fact that a full-scale war in Ukraine will soon lead to a conflict with NATO, and that Russia is doomed to lose. The human costs will be catastrophic. And warfare is very expensive, and the money bin is running empty.
  • Silovikis in KGB/FSB and in the Generals’ Chief of Staff are also active businessmen, and today’s situation in Russia is really bad for business. It’s more fun to go to Monaco than Gelendzhik.
  • British politicians threaten to publish the wealth accumulated in the West by Russian businessmen, politicians and bureaucrats. Even if the chekist regime is controlling the main media channels, such news will reach a substantial part of Russian citizens.

As always, we will have to wait and see….