The Minsk agreement 2 lies in shatters. Russian forces have got the order to take Debaltseve at any cost. Shyrokyne near Mariupol has been shelled into little pieces and the Azov Battalion has withdrawn. Heavy shelling of Donetsk airport which was staged by Russian television today. Zolote, Marinka, Horlivka, Chornykhyne were all places where Russian forces violated the ceasefire during the first 24 hours. Yes, RUSSIAN forces, not “pro-Russian separatists” as many journalists prefer to call them. There are not many “separatists” left, and they haven’t had much to say from the very beginning anyway. Zakharchenko and Plotnisky are nothing more than a local alibi, everything they say and do is managed by Kremlin.

Aggression from four fronts

Russian forces are now piling up huge forces on four fronts:

1. Rostov oblast/Western front: every day more and more heavy weapons, ammunition and soldiers are flowing into Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

2. Rostov oblast/Southern front: the Russian army in Novoazovsk decided to strike back on Azov’s offensive. In addition to the troops already stationed there, large convoys are standing on the border, ready to enter Ukrainian soil

3. Crimea: Russian forces are standing on the border to Ukraine, and are ready to invade from South

4. Belgorod oblast: moving of huge forces to the Ukrainian border, which is only 50 km from Kharkiv.

When the final signal is given it is very likely that Russian forces in Pridnyestrovye and Belarus will be activated.

Sergey Naryshkin, who is speaker of the Duma, a KGB hardliner and a close ally to Putin, has sent a letter to the European Parliament where he states that the war in Ukraine is a war “against nazism”. Many, among them Swedish politicians, perceive the letter’s content as a war threat. Naryshkin is not crazy, he is just acting as in preparation for war. Most of the Russian people are already for a war against their “fascist, nazi” neighbor in South East.

There will be several provocations by the Russians forces inside Ukraine, like shelling into Russian territory. This will give the Russian army the excuse it needs to finally invade Ukraine on a big scale, like they planned to do in July (that invasion was spoiled by their own shooting down of the wrong plane. Instead of the Malaysian Airlines MH17, the Russian BUK was supposed to hit SU 2074, which was full of Russian tourists on their way from Moscow to Larnaca).

European leaders, with a few exceptions (Poland, Lithuania and Estonia), have not yet shown that they fully understand the graveness of the situation. It is easier and more comfortable, for now, to “hope” for the best and that Putin will not escalate his aggression. It is about time that they face the facts:

  • Russia’s goal is to take control over Ukraine, no matter what. Russia is even willing to sacrifice its own economy to reach this goal
  • If Europe let Putin invade Ukraine from four fronts and establish the Crimean corridor, the next step by Russia will be further aggression, most likely one or more of the Baltic states

So what shall you do, Europe? Prepare for war, and then hope for the best.