The chances that a big war will break out in Europe are increasing every day. And nobody seems to notice. I assess the possibility of such an outbreak to be over 20% as by January 24.
So far very few in Western Europe seem to pay any attention to what is happening in Ukraine. Even when the fierce fighting around the Donetsk Airport got very intense on January 13, not one major media channel – BBC, CNN – bothered to even mention it. With such little attention it is not strange that ordinary media consumers don’t lift their eyebrows when hundreds of lives are lost right on their own doorstep.
Russia’s aggression is much more dangerous than people, and even experts, think. The next step will be to conquer all territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including the symbolic city of Slavyansk. Today already, as Zakharchenko promised, Mariupol was heavily attacked by Russian Grad rockets, and more than 30 people were killed.
A further Russian military expansion will not be a very difficult and time consuming operation. Debaltseve is now being entirely encircled by Russian troops and we will most probably see the same kind of slaughtering as in Ilovaisk in August. Europe will continue to try to arrange peace talks, and USA will continue to use powerful rhetorics – but not more than that. The West is just not prepared to handle the kind of aggressive warfare which Russia is threatening us with now.
When these two regions are under control, the next step will be opening the corridor to Crimea.
After that the next victims will be the Baltic states, either one of them or all three.
Since the “return” of Putin as president in 2012, the Russian media has been systematically built up a strong sentiment of hate against the West in general and US in particular. The majority of the Russians believe in the state propaganda, and Kurkov with his lap dogs Kisilyov, Solovyov prepare the people for another war.
In several regions conscript soldier are forced to sign contracts and will be, and already are being, sent to Eastern Ukraine.
As long as the West is not responding in an adequate manner, and the Ukraine leadership gives priority to funerals in Saudi Arabia, Putin will continue to push the boundaries. After all, that is his modus operandi.